The Great AI Job Debate: Two Opposing Visions
In an interview with Geoffrey Hinton, an early innovator in AI, he gave a somewhat dystopian perspective on the pending joblessness that will come with more and more intelligent AIs. His argument was that, unlike the industrialization and mechanization of assembly lines, when the automation allowed for more production of scarce goods and so more jobs were created to manufacture more stuff, cognitive work doesn't scale like that and when one person can do the thought work of 10, with AI assistance, nine people will lose their jobs.
Tim O'Reilly, founder and CEO of O'Reilly Media, stated in his article The End of Programming As We Know It that he believes the opposite - that with AI assistants, we will just create more interesting and more complicated software. We will continue to need just as many, if not more, developers to handle the work.
Both bring interesting perspectives and good evidence to support their beliefs. I certainly don't see myself on the same level as Tim or Geoffrey, but I have a slightly more nuanced belief that is based on the simple principle that AI is just another tool.
The Economics of Software Development: A Reality Check
One thing has remained consistent in software businesses in capitalist societies all along - every business has their own unique tolerance for profitability. In the same industry, you will see one business that is funded in a way to expect significant losses for years and hire many more developers than another because they are focused on releasing as much product as possible in the shortest time possible. The other company may favor profitability more and will restrain or even cut back on staffing to ensure profitability is sustained.
It's highly unusual that a company is so flush with staff that they don't have something in their backlog that they feel would be really great to have in production and that they could make more money if they did. Typically, those backlogs are pretty long and there's never enough time or people to create everything they want to.
AI as a Productivity Multiplier: The Real Impact
The introduction of AIs into the Product Development Life Cycle (PDLC) will act as a productivity multiplier and more of those backlog ideas will come to the front.
I believe companies will need to find a new equilibrium with AI in the mix. Here's what I expect to see:
The Staffing Shuffle
- Some businesses may fire some engineers, or more likely freeze additional hiring because they can do more with less
- Many businesses will leverage the productivity gains to create more product from their backlogs and potentially scale up to more staff because of the increased revenue
- Startups and growth companies will likely hire more developers to accelerate their product development cycles
The New Developer Reality
- Junior developers might face more competition as AI handles basic coding tasks
- Senior developers will become even more valuable as they focus on architecture, system design, and complex problem-solving
- AI-savvy developers who can effectively prompt and work with AI tools will have a significant advantage
Beyond the Binary: A Nuanced Future
Ultimately, I don't believe that AI will render all software engineering moot and there will be no jobs (at least not for a long while). I think it will change the economics that every company's CEO, CFO and CTO have to use to determine staffing levels.
The key insight is that AI doesn't eliminate the need for human judgment, creativity, and strategic thinking - it amplifies it. The developers who thrive will be those who can:
- Think strategically about system architecture and design
- Solve complex problems that AI can't yet handle
- Collaborate effectively with AI tools to boost productivity
- Understand business context and translate requirements into technical solutions
- Mentor and guide AI systems to produce better results
The Bottom Line: Adaptation Over Replacement
The future isn't about pink slips versus pay raises - it's about adaptation. Just as the introduction of high-level programming languages, IDEs, and cloud computing changed the nature of software development without eliminating the need for developers, AI will transform the field again.
The question isn't whether there will be software development jobs, but what those jobs will look like and how developers will need to evolve their skills. The most successful developers will be those who embrace AI as a powerful tool rather than fearing it as a replacement.
What's your take? Are you seeing AI as a threat to your career or as an opportunity to become more productive and valuable? The answer might depend on how you choose to adapt to this new reality.
